House Republicans Give Up Hopes of Picking Up Seats

House Republicans have received fairly positive press coverage over the past 24 hours following their announcement of $40 million worth of television ad buys for their candidates around the country. Of course the GOP figure is somewhat modest when compared to the more than $50 million reserved by House Democrats this year (the first time in recent memory that the National Republican Congressional Committee will be outspent by its Democratic counterpart), but nevertheless it represents a significant investment in maintaining the GOP majority in the House.
Taking a look at the specifics of the ad buy, though, it becomes clear that the Republican action is almost wholly defensive and reactive. Whereas the Dems' ad buy targets 27 seats (and perhaps eventually more) while defending just five, the vast bulk of the GOP ad buy is dedicated to protecting vulnerable incumbents.
The AP's Liz Sidoti runs with the Republican claim that the NRCC is setting its sites on "several Democrats." However, just three Democratic incumbents (Chet Edwards of Texas, John Spratt of South Carolina and Leonard Boswell of Iowa) and three Democratic open seats (Vermont At-Large and, presumably, Ohio districts 6 and 13) are specifically listed as targets, a surprisingly unambitious set of seats given GOP claims of being on the offensive against supposedly weak Democratic incumbents like Melissa Bean of Illinois, Jim Marshall and John Barrow of Georgia, Charlie Melancon of Louisiana and Alan Mollohan of West Virginia.
Also conspisiously absent from the Republican list are perennial targets like Dennis Moore in Kansas and Jim Matheson in Utah. Apparently, the NRCC isn't the only big gun to have given up on these races. As Thomas Burr reports for The Salt Lake Tribune, George W. Bush, who is making the third stop in Utah of his presidency, will hold a fundraiser for Sen. Orrin Hatch (who, despite the best efforts of Democrat Pete Ashdown, is not in serious jeopardy this fall) yet will not help bring in money for Matheson's Republican challenger.
The fact Hatch snagged Bush for the fundraiser caused some other Republicans in the state to grumble behind the scenes that other GOP candidates in the state could use the money more, especially 2nd Congressional District candidate LaVar Christensen, who is looking to topple three-term Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson.
One top state Republican described fellow party members as being "jealous" of Hatch.
That the NRCC is so bearish on its chances this fall that it won't invest money in the state with the highest approval rating in the nation and that the President will raise money for Orrin Hatch but not a House candidate in a district in which he received close to two-thirds of the vote against John Kerry in 2004 are yet further indications that House Democrats have the Republicans on their heels today. And if this momentum continues through election day, regardless of what generic congressional ballot polling shows, this November is going to yield big results for the Democrats.