Democratic Incumbents Stronger Than Republicans

In its polling, Democracy Corps "uses the actual candidate names in each congressional race (and generic language in cases where there is no clear nominee), providing a level of specificity lacking from any other national measure of the congressional contest." Here are the striking results:

• In contests where a Democratic incumbent is running for re-election (199 House seats in this database), the Democratic candidates enjoy a 26-point advantage and claim a strong majority of the votes (57 to 31 percent)
• In open seats with no incumbent running in this cycle (20 House seats), the Democratic advantage is even higher -- a remarkable 63 to 28 percent
• Most importantly, in races where a Republican incumbent is running for re-election (217 House seats), the Republican candidate leads by just 4 points (42 to 46 percent) and fails to claim majority support -- a sharp contrast from the strong position of Democratic incumbents.